Geopolitical and socio-economic drivers

Growing geo-political conflicts and war have led to rising inflation (in particular food and energy prices) raising concerns over price and financial stability, particularly in low-income countries. Inflation hits poor people more than wealthy people and is leading to a decline in livestock source foods consumption among vulnerable segments of the population. Inflation is also discouraging long term investments as future value streams are more heavily discounted. Demographic drivers such as population growth and lifestyle preferences can also contribute substantially to change and adaption in food systems. Conflicts and war, together with the lessons from Covid have led countries to re-focus on food and energy security, and trade restrictions are now being applied to a growing number of items, including semi-conductors, telecommunications, rare minerals, access to social media, etc…

One health drivers

Recent global health events include Covid 19, a coronavirus of animal origin, causing millions of deaths and disease, severely disrupting societies and economies for most of 2020 to 2022. While Covid affected livestock systems less than other parts of the economy, it massively altered food consumption patterns and caused supply chain disruptions around the world, such as shortage of qualified personnel. Another recent health event is the on-going African swine fever (ASF) panzootic, mostly in Asia and in particular China, with a recent new surge that will affect 10% of pig production after leveling back to pre-panzootic pig numbers and triggering another import surge with global consequences on livestock source foods prices. The on-going ASF pandemic is also triggering a massive restructuring of pork systems in favour of large-scale production and processing units with high bio-security, and the associated rapid disappearance of small scale production.

Environmental drivers

Climate change is another driver of transformation. The aim of the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius is now out of reach, and the surpassing of the Paris threshold is predicted for 2030. The well below 2 degrees target is also at risk. Climate change and extreme weather events will accelerate in the coming years and decades as most emissions stay in the atmosphere for decades/centuries. Climate change is affecting grazing systems (heat, feed production, water stress, emerging diseases (ticks)) but also intensive, concentrate-based production through higher variability and costs of production. These environmental changes will increase losses and damages and will threaten food security, in particular, for the most vulnerable countries and communities. There is also growing pressure for livestock systems, in particular ruminants, to reduce their methane emissions, which will influence consumption patterns and trade too.

Technological innovation drivers

Over time, technology advances have helped livestock systems to become incrementally more efficient and productive. Recent technological developments are creating new products that have the potential to replace or complement traditional livestock products, including plant-based, precision fermentation and synthetic meat. Whereas the trend to plant-based is probably long term (involving generational change), precision fermentation and lab meat could be more disruptive. A number of countries have started to provide legal frameworks for related products to enter the market.